Evaluating Players

This is my favorite topic when it comes to fantasy baseball. At some point during the season, you're going to have to make a roster move. Either an injury or, a demotion (platooning, benched, or sent down to the minors) will compel you to search the free agent ranks to pick up a replacement. Or, you're simply trying to better your team. I'll discuss trades in another post, as they have additional issues you have to deal with.

So, how do you go about evaluating a player from the several likely candidates that maybe out there for you. It is rare (certainly in our league) that there'll be an outstanding player that you could pick-up for "free", i.e. without much homework. In our league, with 320 players drafted, it usually comes down to picking between several marginal players.

Here's what I look at:
I'm a "numbers guy", so everything I do in fantasy baseball is "by the numbers". I rarely get emotional about players (or teams). Don't get me wrong. I have my favorite teams (LA Dodgers, and Oakland A's), and I have my favorite players (Albert Pujols, David Wright, Derek Jeter, Vladimir Gurrero), but when it comes to fantasy baseball, all bets are off. I'm trying to put together the best possible team, regardless of who they play for.

The first thing I look at is their historical stats. I know that in our league, for hitters, OPS is highly correlated with our statistical point system. So, I look for high OPS. For pitchers, I look at WHIP.

I'll have more on each of these categories later.

The next thing I look at is their age. As a general rule, I don't like older players. Because I have to wrestle with the question of: "Are their better years behind them"? For younger players (especially those coming out of the minors for the first time), the issue is, are the numbers "big" enough? Do they have enough "numbers" so that you could get a meaningful read on their ability?

I also look at trends. For the stats that I look at, have the trends been positive, or negative? If they are young, I look at their minor league stats. Have they risen rapidly within the organization?

I look at the league. I tend to favor National League pitchers and American League hitters (although it doesn't always work out that way). I look at the teams. Where do they play? For example, 2 years ago I picked Brian Fuentes, the closer for the Rockies off the waiver wire, despite the fact that he was pitching in Colorado. Why? He's numbers were astounding, especially when you consider that those numbers were generated in Colorado.

I also consider their surroundings. For example, are they coming off an injury? Have they moved to a new team? Has the team built a new ballpark, or has the team moved? Have they switched positions? Are they eligible at multiple positions?

Ok, enough of that. My next post will discuss OPS and WHIP (and my modified version of WHIP).