OPS

In 2007 in our league, the Top 100 point-getters (for hitters) had an average OPS of 0.866.  Within that group, OPS had a 0.78 correlation with points per plate appearance.  And, within that group 0f 100, 21 players had an OPS less than 0.800.  Only one player, Juan Pierre, had an OPS less than 0.700 (it was 0.680).  He makes up a lot of ground with his speed (no pun  intended).  Eight players had an OPS above 1.000.  Of the eight, only one player, Barry Bonds placed outside the top 50 in points (he finished 51st).  He simply didn't get enough plate appearances.  

4 of the top 5 point-getters had an OPS above 1.000.  If you look at points per plate appearance, 5 out of the top 6 had an OPS above 1.000.

The average career OPS for my team this year is 0.875.  Here's how they stack-up:

C: Napoli - 0.814

1B: Pena - 0.848

MI: Utley - 0.902

MI: Escobar - 0.849

3B: Ramirez - 0.835

OF: Ordonez - 0.892

OF: Scott - 0.885

Util: Thome - 0.973

BN: Johnson - 0.800

BN: Barton: 1.019

BN: Church - 0.814

BN: Ellsbury - 0.857

BN: Drew - 0.891

I rarely, rarely, rarely, if ever, look at players whose OPS is below 0.800.  

Johnson was a very marginal pick for me, although his OPS last year was 0.831 - his first full season in the majors.  His career minor league OPS is 0.827 (more on minor league stats later).  I won't worry too  much about Napoli, since there aren't too many top-notch catchers, and I won't lose too many points at that position.  Both of these players are relatively young, and I think have upside potential.  As for Church, I think he'll do better in Shea stadium versus the old Nationals ballpark.

OPS and WHIP

In our league, in evaluating hitters, the first thing I look at is OPS.  If OPS is marginal, then I'll consider other stats, like SB/CS.  When I look at OPS, I look to see what influence their batting average has on the #.  I tend to discount high OPS, if it is as a result of a very high batting average (unless the guy has a history of very high batting averages).  If someone has a very low OPS as a result of a very low batting average, I tend to discount (i.e give them more credit) that as well (again, unless of course they have a history of low batting averages).  

I also have rules of thumb that I apply by position.  For example, I look for different OPS #s when evaluating OFs versus MI.

For pitchers, the most important stat I look at is WHIP.  Even though ERA is what "scores" for us, I am not a big fan of simply looking at ERA.  It tends to be volatile (i.e has a high variance).  I would like to lobby our league to incorporate WHIP as a scoring mechanism in future years. ERA for pitchers is a little bit like RBI for hitters (i.e. not an ideal measure of how good they are).  Also, when I look at WHIP, I take into consideration BAA.  I have since modified WHIP to create a statistic called K-WHIP, which takes into account their strikeouts.  To me, this stat tells me how "dominant" a pitcher is.

In my next blog, we'll take a more in-depth look at these two metrics, and how I use it to evaluate players.

Evaluating Players

This is my favorite topic when it comes to fantasy baseball. At some point during the season, you're going to have to make a roster move. Either an injury or, a demotion (platooning, benched, or sent down to the minors) will compel you to search the free agent ranks to pick up a replacement. Or, you're simply trying to better your team. I'll discuss trades in another post, as they have additional issues you have to deal with.

So, how do you go about evaluating a player from the several likely candidates that maybe out there for you. It is rare (certainly in our league) that there'll be an outstanding player that you could pick-up for "free", i.e. without much homework. In our league, with 320 players drafted, it usually comes down to picking between several marginal players.

Here's what I look at:
I'm a "numbers guy", so everything I do in fantasy baseball is "by the numbers". I rarely get emotional about players (or teams). Don't get me wrong. I have my favorite teams (LA Dodgers, and Oakland A's), and I have my favorite players (Albert Pujols, David Wright, Derek Jeter, Vladimir Gurrero), but when it comes to fantasy baseball, all bets are off. I'm trying to put together the best possible team, regardless of who they play for.

The first thing I look at is their historical stats. I know that in our league, for hitters, OPS is highly correlated with our statistical point system. So, I look for high OPS. For pitchers, I look at WHIP.

I'll have more on each of these categories later.

The next thing I look at is their age. As a general rule, I don't like older players. Because I have to wrestle with the question of: "Are their better years behind them"? For younger players (especially those coming out of the minors for the first time), the issue is, are the numbers "big" enough? Do they have enough "numbers" so that you could get a meaningful read on their ability?

I also look at trends. For the stats that I look at, have the trends been positive, or negative? If they are young, I look at their minor league stats. Have they risen rapidly within the organization?

I look at the league. I tend to favor National League pitchers and American League hitters (although it doesn't always work out that way). I look at the teams. Where do they play? For example, 2 years ago I picked Brian Fuentes, the closer for the Rockies off the waiver wire, despite the fact that he was pitching in Colorado. Why? He's numbers were astounding, especially when you consider that those numbers were generated in Colorado.

I also consider their surroundings. For example, are they coming off an injury? Have they moved to a new team? Has the team built a new ballpark, or has the team moved? Have they switched positions? Are they eligible at multiple positions?

Ok, enough of that. My next post will discuss OPS and WHIP (and my modified version of WHIP).

Fantasy Baseball - My Team (Current As of 4/5/08)

Our league this year has 16 owners. We draft 20 players each. Basically, slim pickings in the free agent market, so you have to pay attention, and sometimes take a chance on unproved, young players, hoping that they live up the hype.

Here's how the team structure works:
1 C, 1 1B, 2 MI (i.e any 2 middle infielders), 1 3B, 2 OF, 1 Util (any hitter), 5 SP, 1 RP, 6 BN (bench), and upto 3 DL.

As of today (April 5th), here's my team:
C: Mike Napoli, LAA
1B: Carlos Pena, TB
MI: Chase Utley, PHI
MI: Yunel Escobar, ATL
3B: Aramis Ramirez, CHC
OF: Magglio Ordonez, DET
OF: Luke Scott, BAL
Util: Jim Thome, CWS
SP: Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS
SP: AJ Burnett, TOR
SP: Zack Grienke, KC
SP: John Danks, CWS
SP: Rick VendenHurk, FLA
RP: Jose Valverde, HOU

BN: Kelly Johnson, ATL, MI
BN: Daric Bartin, OAK, 1B
BN: Ryan Church, NYM, OF
BN: Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS, OF
BN: JD Drew, BOS, OF

DL: Scott Kazmir, TB, SP
DL: Shawn Hill, WAS, SP

I have 1 open spot.

I was going to fill that spot with CIN #3 starter Johnny Cueto, but someone ahead of me on the waiver list picked him up.

So I'm looking for an SP or a MI at the moment. I might have to start looking into some trades...

Fantasy Baseball Metrics

Here's our point system for our fantasy baseball league:

For Hitters:
AB: -1
1B: +4
2B: +6
3B: +7
HR: +8
BB: +1
SB: +2
CS: -2
K: -0.5

For Pitchers:
IP: +2
ER: -2
K: +0.5
CG: +3.0
SHO: +3.0

Pretty simple.

The league tends to favor hitters (i.e the guys who end up at the top of the point list at the end of the season tend to have a strong hitting team rather than a strong pitching team).

Fantasy Baseball

I love fantasy baseball. I look forward to it every year. More so than fantasy football. People say, "it's too much work, you have to pay attention everyday". That is why I like it. There's something everyday. You don't have to wait a whole week for action.

I've been involved in a fantasy league for 18 years (on and off)...I skipped the late 90's b/c I was on strike. The 1994 strike killed me. I was in 2nd. The guy in 1st had Geoff Bagwell. He broke his leg in early August, and one week later baseball was on strike. I "gave up" on baseball until 1999, when I was in Baltimore, and went to a game at Camden Yards. We bought tickets at the gate, and ended up getting seats behind home plate, sitting with the players' spouses/families. BJ Surhoff went 5 for 5 that day, and I was hooked.

The league that I'm in is ultra competitive. Some of the guys have been doing this continuously for 18 years. They're smart, and they're "numbers guys". I first got to know them when I was starting out as an actuarial analyst back in 1990.

The league uses traditional statistics, but only those that tend to align with sabermetrics. For example, we don't use RBI's for hitters or Wins for pitchers.

I'll have more on this topic later.